re these really the Oscar nominations? Wow, they aren’t completely infuriating this year. It appears that the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences realized that this was the year of the small film, as well as the year of “The Lord of the Rings.” Many low-profile actors and craftsmen were recognized over Russell Crowe and Nicole Kidman.

Some new people will be on the red carpet when the statues are handed out on Sunday, Feb. 29, instead of in March as part of the new, tighter schedule.

The best of the surprises were the four nominations for “City of God,” the Brazilian film that was criminally overlooked last year in the Best Foreign Film category. It was eligible in other areas this year, and received nods for director Fernando Meirelles as well as cinematography, screenplay and editing.

We still, however, have plenty of complaints and raves as we make our predictions this year.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

And the nominees are…
Alec Baldwin, “The Cooler”
Benicio Del Toro, “21 Grams”
Djimon Hounsou, “In America”
Tim Robbins, “Mystic River”
Ken Watanabe, “The Last Samurai”

Rather than go the traditional route and honor a legend like Albert Finney in “Big Fish,” the academy picked selections from many smaller films—only one was nominated for Best Picture.

Jeremy says: I’d give the award to Djimon Hounsou, whose AIDS-stricken character provides the external heart of the family of Irish immigrants in Jim Sheridan’s “In America.” The academy will want to award Sheridan’s personal, moving story, and Hounsou’s portrayal of a dying man in love with life may be the place in which academy voters award the film.

The other top contender is Tim Robbins for his heartbreaking portrayal of a man living with memories of abduction and abuse from when he was a child. The performances by Sean Penn and Kevin Bacon as his old friends, whom the abduction also scarred, require that Robbins be believable and multidimensional, and his monologue about vampires could seal the award for him.

The other nominees are strong, too. Ken Watanabe’s smart and funny samurai chief in “The Last Samurai” avoided the standard clichés associated with overly serious leaders of traditional cultures. Benicio Del Toro’s work in “21 Grams” is his usual best, but he was awarded three years ago and the film itself doesn’t have that much support behind it. While many love Alec Baldwin in “The Cooler,” it isn’t quite his best work and William H. Macy’s lead performance would have been a better one to recognize.

The academy should have nominated one of two hilarious performances from Terry Zwigoff’s anti-Christmas comedy “Bad Santa”: Brett Kelly as the ridiculed child and Tony Cox as Billy Bob Thornton’s drunken mall Santa’s long-suffering partner in crime. Both actors significantly increased the film’s twisted humor. Also, Bobby Cannavale shouldn’t have been overlooked for his portrayal of a lonely, talkative man in Thomas McCarthy’s “The Station Agent.”

Chris says: Across the board this year, there were too many fantastic performances, both lead and supporting, to recognize. Unfortunately, my favorite supporting performance of the year was one of the ones that the academy overlooked. Peter Sarsgaard gives a low-key but powerfully sympathetic performance in “Shattered Glass,” as New Republic editor Chuck Lane, who is stuck between a rock and a hard place during his first few weeks on the job as Stephen Glass’ infamous fabrications begin to come to light. While recognized at the Golden Globes, Sarsgaard was predictably shafted by the Academy—but the truth is that all five remaining nominees are worthy.

While I’ll bet my next paycheck that the award goes to Tim Robbins (who indeed gives a strong and emotional performance), my nod goes to Benicio Del Toro, who portrays an ex-con trying to go on the straight-and-narrow through Jesus Christ in “21 Grams.” While this may be the best performance of Del Toro’s fine career, there’s almost no chance the academy will pick him since his deserving win in 2000 for “Traffic.”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

And the nominees are…
Shohreh Aghdashloo, “House of Sand and Fog”
Patricia Clarkson, “Pieces of April”
Marcia Gay Harden, “Mystic River”
Holly Hunter, “Thirteen”
Renée Zellweger, “Cold Mountain”

We know that you probably haven’t heard of at least one of these nominees, so let us explain: Renée Zellweger is an American actress who has been nominated before for such films as “Bridget Jones’ Diary.” Oh, Shohreh Aghdashloo? She’s an Iranian actress who you can bet your ass is good because she was nominated for work in a low-profile film when no one knows who she is.

Chris says: If there’s any acting award that is pretty much locked up, it’s this one. While “Cold Mountain” has received only modest reviews, Zellweger’s performance has everyone talking. With all the hype she’s getting, the smart money is on her.

Personally, I’m pulling for an upset by the previously unknown Aghdashloo. Why is she so good? Simple. She plays the wife of an often-volatile former Iranian general, played by Ben Kingsley. Playing side-by-side with an actor of Kingsley’s skill and presence is not an easy test—but Aghdashloo passes it with flying colors. As great as Kingsley is, when the two are on-screen together, it’s Aghdashloo whom we notice. Her performance is a remarkable feat and should be recognized…but I doubt it will be.

Jeremy says: I’m feeling a bit like an upset in the category famous for upsets, so I’m going to predict Shohreh Aghdashloo for her fine work in “House of Sand and Fog,” which contains a reserved poignancy through a character who only speaks broken English. Even compared to the knockout performances in “Mystic River,” this role doesn’t have the brilliant speeches, requiring Aghdashloo’s full concentration to pull it off.

While Renée Zellweger is the front-runner, “Cold Mountain” wasn’t that big with academy members. Sure, it received seven nominations, but that’s peanuts for a Miramax film when you consider that Jude Law’s nomination is the only one in the top five categories. Known for heavy campaigning, Harvey Weinstein and Co. go to bat for their films like crazy, often resulting in material that isn’t that good (“Chocolat”) receiving Best Picture nominations. Not counting the company’s 25 percent share in “Master and Commander,” this is the first time in more than a decade that the academy hasn’t nominated a Miramax film. People are getting sick of awarding things they don’t like just to please Harvey, and they simply didn’t like “Cold Mountain” that much. Zellweger gives a nice comic relief performance, but when it comes down to it, voters will go for something with a little more substance.

There were two other people I would have liked to see nominated. Christina Ricci’s character in “Monster” played a key part in putting Charlize Theron’s amazing performance in context. The young Miranda Cosgrove should also have been recognized for her debut turn as a plucky suck-up in Richard Linklater’s “The School of Rock.”

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song

And the nominees are…
T-Bone Burnett, Elvis Costello, “The Scarlet Tide” from “Cold Mountain”
Sting, “You Will Be My Ain True Love” from “Cold Mountain”
Frances Walsh, Howard Shore, Annie Lennox, “Into the West” from “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King,”
Michael McKean, Annette O'Toole, “A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow” from “A Mighty Wind”
Benoît Charest, Sylvain Chomet, “Les Triplettes de Belleville” from “The Triplets of Belleville”

Two rock legends play some old-timey music in “Cold Mountain” while Spinal Tap members do some folk. For nontraditional music, we’ve got Annie Lennox straining her voice and some jazzy nonsense.

Jeremy says: This is a tough one. The ’60s folk replicas of “A Mighty Wind” managed to be both funny and authentic-sounding. And who’s one to be upset about an award for T-Bone Burnett and Elvis Costello (although I think Miramax is pushing Sting’s nomination from “Cold Mountain” harder)? But I think my favorite song is the swinging nonsense of “Belleville Rendez-vous” from Sylvain Chomet’s animated odyssey “The Triplets of Belleville.”

As for the winner, I’m having trouble predicting “Into the West” because the dragging song is probably the worst thing about “Return of the King,” detracting from Howard Shore’s otherwise excellent score, which will most likely win its own prize. Still, Sting seems to be the toughest competition, so what’s a predictor to do? “Into the West” it is.

Chris says: I refuse to believe that “Into the West” will take this category, and I base that opinion on absolutely nothing save my own personal hatred for the song itself. I am pulling for either of the “Cold Mountain” selections in this category, and it would be great to see a legend like Elvis Costello take home a statuette. So there, Harvey Weinstein can have his precious little Best Song trophy.

Best Achievement in Cinematography

And the nominees are…
César Charlone, “City of God”
John Seale, “Cold Mountain”
Eduardo Serra, “Girl with a Pearl Earring”
Russell Boyd, “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”
John Schwartzman, “Seabiscuit”

Actors and directors may get all the hype, but behind pretty much every great movie is a genius working the camera.

This is quite a varied category, with a period piece based in the Civil War, a period piece about a 17th-century Dutch artist and a peasant girl, a period piece about a 19th-century British naval ship, a period piece about a Depression-era horse that embodied the American dream and a period piece about gang wars in the projects of Rio de Janeiro in the 1960s and ’70s. Well, that last one, “City of God,” really is quite different, with its vibrant energy.

In case you’re wondering, Andrew Lesnie probably wasn’t nominated for his work in “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” because he won for the first part of the trilogy, and it’s the same body of work.

Chris says: This is the most underrated category of them all, and one of my absolute favorites.

Like most years, there were plenty of options to choose from, and as always there were those that the Academy shunned. M. David Mullen should have gotten recognized for his work on “Northfork,” whose muted tones and vast Montana landscapes were beautiful enough to mostly make up for a somewhat emotionally stunted film.

Also left out of the loop were two of the all-time greats, John Toll and Robert Richardson. Toll—who won Oscars for “Braveheart” and “Legends of the Fall”—helped bring epic battle sequences to glorious life in “The Last Samurai,” one of the best-looking movies of the year. Richardson’s work on “Kill Bill, Vol. 1” was overlooked, along with the rest of the movie throughout the awards season. His use of color, black-and-white and silhouette—combined with some of the greatest action choreography ever put on film—made Tarantino’s revenge epic one of the most visually fascinating movies of the year.

As for those who were nominated, my pick has to go to César Charlone’s work on “City of God,” the only film among this year’s nominees that actually stands out as unique. Charlone’s camera movement and brown discoloration of the slums outside Rio de Janeiro perfectly captures the frenzied atmosphere of life during the infamous gang wars in the City of God.

Jeremy says: Nothing really compares with César Charlone’s work on “City of God,” and the academy will agree with me. Director Fernando Meirelles demanded a strong cinematic vocabulary, and Charlone made sure it all fit as a cohesive look in one of the year’s very best films. This is the academy’s chance to award it. If someone else wins, it would probably be John Schwartzman for his fine, intense photography of horse races in “Seabiscuit.”

Other people I would have liked to see nominated are M. David Mullen for “Northfork” (which wasn’t otherwise emotionally stunted, by the way), Harris Savides for his dream-like floating through a high school in “Elephant” and Tim Orr for his poetic exploration of a relationship in David Gordon Green’s “All the Real Girls.”

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

And the nominees are…
Shari Springer Berman, Robert Pulcini, “American Splendor”
Bráulio Mantovani, “City of God”
Philippa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Frances Walsh, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
Brian Helgeland, “Mystic River”
Gary Ross, “Seabiscuit”

In terms of the “Return of the King” sweep, this is where it’s most vulnerable, with all four competitors being films that the academy would like to recognize for something.

Jeremy says: In terms of sheer brilliance in adapting a work to the screen, I’d have to give the golden statue to “American Splendor’s” screenplay by the film’s directors, Shari Springer Berman and Robert Pulcini. In adapting Harvey Pekar’s autobiographical cult comic books about everyday life to the big screen, Berman and Pulcini animate his work, have Pekar narrate his story while Paul Giamatti portrays him, use archival footage of the real Pekar, interview the real Pekar about the process and somehow make it all work in a cohesively and capture Pekar’s worldview. The film re-invents the biopic.

Bráulio Mantovani, however, is equally impressive in his sharp organization of multiple stories, narration and history in “City of God.”

Neil LaBute also could have been recognized for unabashedly adapting his thoughtful play “The Shape of Things” to a cinematic work, still making it a series of talkative scenes while making it entirely engaging.

The winner, however, will likely be “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” crew. There isn’t one single film that members want to specifically honor, with the possible exception of “Mystic River,” whose screenplay by Brian Helgeland has powerful, dramatic speeches. So the vote will split and the king will rule them all.

Chris says: While this will definitely be a year dominated at the top by “The Return of the King,” I don’t think the film will get recognized here. While the film is great—certainly the best of the trilogy—the biggest reason for its magnificence is not the script. “Mystic River,” on the other hand, was brilliant precisely because of its writing and acting, and that is where the film will get recognized because it will almost definitely come out empty-handed in the Best Picture and Best Director categories.

My vote, once again, would go to “City of God,” which couldn’t possibly have been as good as it was without such a screenplay. With all the material that gets crammed in to the movie, it could have very easily become muddled and confusing. But Braulio Mantovani blends every aspect of the story perfectly.

Other adapted screenplays worthy of recognition include Niki Caro’s “Whale Rider” and Peter Weir and John Collee for “Master and Commander.”

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen

And the nominees are…
Denys Arcand, “Les Invasions Barbares”
Steve Knight, “Dirty Pretty Things”
Andrew Stanton, Bob Peterson, David Reynolds, “Finding Nemo”
Jim Sheridan, Naomi Sheridan, Kirsten Sheridan, “In America”
Sofia Coppola, “Lost in Translation”

Once again, the original screenplay category offers some slots for less-awarded films, including one from Canada, one from England, an animated feature and a personal story of Irish immigrants written by a father and his daughters.

Chris says: The Academy will get it right on this one. Sofia Coppola’s script is great because of its beauty and simplicity. Nothing is contrived here and nothing is forced. Every conversation between Bill Murray and Scarlett Johansson seems like a real, genuine conversation. It seems like real people talking to each other, and it’s easy to forget that we’re watching a movie because the dialogue is so honest. Sofia will take home the fourth writing Oscar in the Coppola family, and deservedly so.

I would have loved to see David Gordon Green’s “All the Real Girls” get nominated here, but I didn’t expect it. Green’s film matches “Lost in Translation” in honesty and simplicity and is one of the most honest and believable love stories I’ve ever seen. Guillermo Arriaga (“21 Grams”), Claude Kontz (“Man on the Train”) and Peter Sollett (“Raising Victor Vargas”) were all deserving as well.

Jeremy says: As a member of Hollywood royalty, Sofia Coppola will win for her subtle character study in “Lost in Translation.” Everyone knows that Peter Jackson is getting that directing award, so this will serve double duty to recognize Coppola’s work in both areas in her honest study of two people who briefly find one another in Tokyo.

The biggest competition will be the emotional appeal of “In America” by Jim Sheridan and his daughters, Naomi and Kirsten. This heartfelt, emotional film, based on the true events of when his family immigrated to America in the ’80s, will be stiff competition.

Another very strong screenplay is “The Barbarian Invasions” by Denys Arcand, who employs a refreshing humor and cynicism while respectfully addressing death.

I’m in agreement with Chris on the snubs, and would also like to comment on Gus Van Sant’s work on “Elephant,” which offers one of the most realistic portrayals of high school in film history.

Best Documentary, Features

And the nominees are…
“Balseros” - Loris Omedes
“Capturing the Friedmans” - Andrew Jarecki, Marc Smerling
“The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara” - Errol Morris, Michael Williams
“My Architect: A Son's Journey” - Nathaniel Kahn, Susan Rose Behr
“The Weather Underground” - Sam Green, Bill Siegel

In its third year since reform, the documentary category now actually has some of the best documentaries of the year. The academy is investigating how an Errol Morris film was finally nominated.

Jeremy says: This was a fine year for documentaries. In addition to the hits “Spellbound” and “Winged Migration,” which were both nominated last year and released wide this year, we have a set of nominees that have, in several cases, already played in theaters. But the choice is simple, as the academy has never even nominated Errol Morris, one of the greatest documentarians of all time. Morris used his hypnotic interview techniques to create an important dialogue with former U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, who was involved in the Kennedy and Johnson administrations and was considered a war hawk because of his involvement in the Vietnam War. McNamara isn’t as hawkish as people perceived him to be, and reveals the great prices one must consider when going to war. To make up for the embarrassment and because of the timely nature of the film, Morris will finally get his statue.

The second-best film is Andrew Jarecki’s “Capturing the Friedmans,” which looks at an unhealthy family that was scarred when the patriarch was arrested for possessing child pornography and the charges were increased to child molestation, in what becomes clear was at least partly reactionary. My third choice is “Balseros,” a touching portrayal of Cuban immigrants trying to get to America. The other two works are also worthwhile.

Chris says: Since all of the nominated docs haven’t been released in Salt Lake City yet, it’s hard for me to make a pick, since I don’t get all the cushy press screenings like Jeremy does. But I have seen “Capturing the Friedmans,” and I can tell you that it will be hard to convince me that it doesn’t deserve the prize. Certainly one of the best documentaries I’ve seen. But, “The Fog of War” opens next week, and if it’s as good as Jeremy says it is, maybe I’ll change my tune. After all, it is a travesty that Errol Morris has never been honored for classic work like “The Thin Blue Line” and “Gates of Heaven.”

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

And the nominees are…
“Brother Bear” - Aaron Blaise, Robert Walker
“Finding Nemo” - Andrew Stanton
“Les Triplettes de Belleville” - Sylvain Chomet

Now that a bizarre French film (“The Triplets of Belleville”) has been nominated, it looks like the nomination process is a little better than when “Jimmy Neutron” received a nomination over “Waking Life.”

On the other end of the spectrum, this category contains the highest grossing film of the year, “Finding Nemo.” While this category, in its third year, has proved a valuable resource to make sure animation gets recognized, some feel it hurt “Nemo’s” chance at a best picture nod. We wonder what the Moose from “Brother Bear” have to say about this, and about being nominated in what could be one of Disney’s last hand-drawn animated films.

Chris says: I often wonder whether the Oscars are actually ready for an entire category dedicated to animated films, considering there are only a small handful of animated films released each year and only two or three actually worthy of recognition. I mean, “Jimmy Neutron: Boy Genius” should not have been nominated for anything. And “Brother Bear” was nominated basically by default this year because little else was eligible.

While “The Triplets of Belleville” will benefit from its critical hype and may be the most deserving of the nominees, I doubt anything will beat out “Finding Nemo.” The biggest hit of 2003—both in the theaters and with its record-setting DVD sales—set a new standard for computerized animation and was, indeed, one of the most visually stimulating of all 2003 releases. While I don’t think “Finding Nemo” reaches the level of the Pixar classic “Toy Story” or DreamWorks’ “Shrek,” it is still an excellent, funny and beautiful film that will receive its due recognition on Oscar night.

Jeremy says: Nothing’s easier than predicting “Finding Nemo,” for its rich colors, underwater reflections, sharp humor and fun performances by Albert Brooks and Ellen Degeneres. But everyone should take a look at Sylvain Chomet’s surreal story of a Tour de France bicyclist, his dog and his grandmother, “The Triplets of Belleville.” The film is a detailed visual feast that recalls old classics while revealing a completely new animation style.

Almost every year there is at least one great animated film that isn’t recognized in the general categories, so the award is worth giving on years when the quota of eligible films is reached. After all, if the academy had nominated “Waking Life” instead of “Jimmy Neutron” along with “Shrek” and “Monsters, Inc.” it would have been a strong set of nominees.

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year

And the nominees are…
“Les Invasions barbares” (Canada)
“Ondskan” (Sweden)
“Tasogare seibei” (Japan)
“De Tweeling” (Netherlands)
“Zelary” (Czech Republic)

Hey, where’s “City of God?” Oh yeah, they forgot to nominate it last year.

Jeremy says: Many of these films have yet to screen, but of those I’ve seen, my favorite is the likely winner, Denys Arcand’s Canadian film “The Barbarian Invasions” (opening Feb. 27). Arcand avoids syrupy sentimentality while looking earnestly at death. There’s a cynical side of the film that makes its emotional impact catch you completely off guard. The film examines the last days of Remy, a dying English professor (Remy Girard). His estranged son, who became a businessman in England instead of pursuing the arts, and the old man’s friends, all portrayed by the same actors who portrayed them in Arcand’s 1986 hit “The Fall of the American Empire,” come to help him get through his dying days.

Besides the ineligible “City of God,” Patrice Leconte’s “The Man on the Train,” also ineligible, is my favorite foreign film released this year. French pop icon Johnny Hallyday and Jean Rochefort play a thief and an old man in a small town who envy each other’s lives.

Chris says: I was holding out hope that the Academy would peg “Man on the Train” for a Best Foreign Film nomination, but alas, it was released in France in 2002 and therefore couldn’t get a nomination. Of the remaining choices, it seems that “The Barbarian Invasions” is the smart pick here, given Denys Arcand’s reputation and the buzz surrounding his newest offering. But who knows? This is the Academy, after all.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

And the nominees are…
Johnny Depp, “Pirates of the Caribbean”
Ben Kingsley, “House of Sand and Fog”
Jude Law, “Cold Mountain”
Bill Murray, “Lost in Translation”
Sean Penn, “Mystic River”

There were so many damned strong male performances this year. Even if your favorite was overlooked, it’s hard to argue anyone off the list, just like last year. Three of these actors haven’t (although some might say they should have—”Ed Wood,” anyone?) been nominated before.

And special recognition goes to Cuba Gooding Jr. for being the first actor to portray a mentally disabled person and not automatically be nominated.

Chris says: I can’t argue with any of the selections here, but only express frustration that the best male performance of the year—Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Owning Mahowny”—was predictably overlooked. Hoffman, perhaps the best character actor in the business right now, still has never gotten an Oscar nomination. For shame!

But, I knew he wouldn’t get a nod, so I can’t complain too much. I’m over it. As for the actual nominees, there’s no doubt it’s going to come down to Sean Penn and Bill Murray, which is kind of like picking between a Porsche and a Ferrari. Both deserve it and I’ll be happy either way. My personal bias is leaning toward Penn, not only because he gave pitch-perfect showings in both “Mystic River” and “21 Grams,” but because he should have won eight years ago for “Dead Man Walking.”

Other noteworthy performances that had no chance of getting nominations were Billy Bob Thornton (aka God) in the hysterical “Bad Santa,” Chiwetel Ejiofor in “Dirty Pretty Things” and Ben Affleck in “Gigli” or “Paycheck”…OK, not really. Sorry, I just couldn’t resist. Oy vey.

Jeremy says: Two great actors in top form. This is one of the hardest awards to both predict and choose for whom to vote, with Bill Murray’s work as a burned out, alienated comic actor in “Lost in Translation” and Sean Penn’s grieving father in “Mystic River.” In the end, the academy will go with the deserving Murray because, hey, they can always snub Penn’s consistently good work next year.

Murray’s work is so precise and detailed that it makes you regret some of those films that he was clearly making for nothing but money. These regrets are some of the same his character is having as he befriends a younger, also confused newlywed woman and tells her about life. This will live forever as some of Murray’s finest work.

Johnny Depp was appropriately recognized, as “Pirates of the Caribbean” would not have big the giant hit it was without his drag-queen-Keith Richards turn as a pirate. Other impressive comic performances, notably Jack Black in “The School of Rock” and Billy Bob Thornton in “Bad Santa,” however, were expectedly left out.

The academy missed a big opportunity to honor Peter Dinklage for his portrayal of an introverted train enthusiast dwarf in “The Station Agent” and the always excellent Phillip Seymour Hoffman for “Owning Mahowny.”

It occurs to me that Chris and I have mentioned enough notable work in many of these categories to fill another set of nominations, demonstrating what a strong year it’s been both for performances and films in general.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

And the nominees are…
Keisha Castle-Hughes, “Whale Rider”
Diane Keaton, “Something's Gotta Give”
Samantha Morton, “In America”
Charlize Theron, “Monster”
Naomi Watts, “21 Grams”

New Zealand actress Keisha Castle-Hughes is only 13 years old, making her the youngest actress to receive a nomination for a lead performance. If that isn’t new enough for you, maybe you’ll appreciate the lack of glamour in any of these roles—a horrifying serial killer, a strung-out widow, a lonely, middle-aged writer and an Irish immigrant.

Jeremy says: I don’t invoke Robert DeNiro’s performance in “Raging Bull” lightly, but Charlize Theron’s portrayal of serial killer Aileen Wuornos in “Monster” is on that same level of concentrated skill on difficult subject matter. Theron captures the conflicted emotions and scarred life of Wuornos, creating great sympathy for her past and showing what inspired her to do the horrible things that she did. I can’t imagine the academy overlooking this remarkable performance.

As for the rest of the nominated actresses, the other performances are quite impressive. “Whale Rider’s” Keisha Castle-Hughes displays an amazing range as a Maori girl who wants to be the chief of her tribe. Naomi Watts turned in just as strong a performance in “21 Grams” as she did in “Mulholland Drive,” which inspired many admirers who complained when the Academy didn’t nominate her. Speaking of complaining, I’m still mad about Samantha Morton’s Supporting Actress Oscar for “Sweet and Lowdown” (1999) going to Angelina Jolie. And Diane Keaton, of course, is at her usual level of excellence while working with her best material in a while in “Something’s Gotta Give.”

There are two other actresses I would have liked to see nominated. Focus Films mysteriously campaigned Scarlett Johansson for as a supporting actress for her lead role in “Lost in Translation” while Lions Gate campaigned her for a lead in “Girl With the Pearl Earring.” I’m confused and I haven’t even looked at a nomination form. Zooey Deschanel’s touching portrayal of naive love in “All the Real Girls” was also overlooked.

Chris says: In another year, Naomi Watts might be a lock. In even another year, Keisha Castle-Hughes might be my pick without a second thought.

This, however, is not just another year. This is the year of Charlize Theron, whose performance is one of the best I’ve seen in years and who will take home the statuette this year. If she didn’t, the academy would have some serious questions to answer.

A lot of talk has been made about her physical transformation—the added weight, the general homeliness of her usually striking good looks. But that’s not what makes Theron so great. What sets her performance in “Monster” apart from any other this year is the complete command she has over every single aspect of her character. It’s the subtle things that make a great performance, and Theron has them all down pat. The little mannerisms, the twitches, the way she walks, the way she holds her cigarette, the way her eyes look in moments of desperation. Within moments, you forget you’re watching an actress on screen. Instead, you’re looking at an absolutely flawless portrait of Aileen Wuornos.

There’s almost no need to talk about the chances of her competitors because they are slim to none. But I have to say that I have rarely been so emotionally affected in a movie than I was by Castle-Hughes in the brilliant “Whale Rider.”

Best Achievement in Directing

And the nominees are…
Sofia Coppola, “Lost in Translation”
Clint Eastwood, “Mystic River”
Peter Jackson, “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
Fernando Meirelles, “City of God”
Peter Weir, “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”

Sofia Coppola is the first American woman to be nominated for best director. Hey, why not? It’s the 21st century, after all. But don’t worry, there are still plenty of men, including a legend (Peter Weir), an icon (Clint Eastwood), a newcomer (Fernando Meirelles) and a winner (Peter Jackson).

Chris says: There really should be no argument here in terms of who will win. Peter Jackson’s got this one locked up. He had it locked up months ago. And who am I to argue? Sure, if I’m picking one director for one movie for this particular year, I’d go with Fernando Meirelles. When his gritty masterpiece, “City of God,” was nominated for four notable Academy Awards, I wet myself. In my mind, there’s no doubt that “City of God” is the best movie of the year, the best movie I’ve seen this decade and one of the best movies I’ll ever see, period.

But Jackson is certainly deserving of the Best Director nod as well. “The Lord of the Rings” trilogy is the most massive cinematic project of all time, and its success and greatness owes every bit as much to Jackson as it does to Tolkien himself. And that’s saying something.

Jeremy says: Peter Jackson, Peter Jackson, Peter Jackson. He spent seven years on the labor of love that was the smash hit “The Lord of the Rings.” Actually, it was three smash hits. Everyone knows, everyone loves it.

There are, however, two amazing films by young people nominated this year. Sofia Coppola’s work in “Lost in Translation” recalls the Japanese masters in patience and subtlety. And Fernando Meirelles, in a completely different tone, takes an energizing tour and reworking of editing and camerawork vocabulary to look at the projects of Rio de Janeiro in “City of God.” Both films will be in history along with the holy trilogy.

By not awarding Coppola, however, the academy is missing the chance to make some history by awarding the first U.S. female director to be nominated. The other two nominated women are Lina Wertmüller and Jane Campion, two directors who are often so inaccessible that the academy would have to drink some sophistication juice to award them. Wertmüller was only nominated because things were wild back in ’76 when her concentration camp sex satire “Seven Beauties” came out.

But back to the men. Gus Van Sant should have been recognized for his dreamy, tonal look at high school violence, “Elephant.”

Best Motion Picture of the Year

And the nominees are…
“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King”
“Lost in Translation”
“Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World”
“Mystic River”
“Seabiscuit”

Gee, I “Lord of the Rings” wonder which film “Lord of the Rings” will win. It’s really a “Lord of the Rings” wide open compe-”Lord of the Rings”-tition.

Jeremy says: Is it even necessary to predict this one? The only way “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” could lose would be if all the voters assumed it was a done deal and voted for my favorite film of the year, “Lost in Translation,” instead. Well, they probably voted for “Seabiscuit” or “Master and Commander” instead, but oh well.

Sofia Coppola demonstrated amazing maturity as a filmmaker in “Lost in Translation,” a thoughtful, daring story of two people striving to be heard in a sea in alienation. With brilliant performances by Bill Murray and Scarlett Johansson as Americans lost in culture shock in Tokyo and Coppola’s assured, subtle direction and screenplay, this film is nearly perfect.

But I can’t be a churl about “The Return of the King” winning. This is a seven-year labor of love that Peter Jackson’s cast and crew worked on to create an epic, nine-plus-hour opus. That the film was financed at all is impressive. The film is the best of the trilogy, falling through on the past to films to create a solid arc. A finish like this on one of the most ambitious projects in cinema history pretty much guarantees that Jackson and his crew will be making the speech.

It says a lot that while only one of the nominees made my top-10 list, I’m not really offended by any of them. Clint Eastwood’s “Mystic River” looks at three damaged lives in a haunted area of Boston as childhood friends revisit a past tragedy. Peter Weir’s “Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World” is an unconventional wartime effort that is more about characters than explosions and easily has the best sound design of the year. Even Gary Ross’ “Seabiscuit,” while not as impressive as 1998’s “Pleasantville,” tells the story that brought people hope during the Great Depression without too much cheese.

Other films that I would have liked to see nominated are “City of God,” “Elephant,” “Monster, ” “All the Real Girls” and “American Splendor,” but I can’t say that I ever expected to see them as contenders, so I’m not driven to complain.

Chris says: “LOTR: The Return of the King” seems like a lock, and it very well might be. But I do believe there is a slight chance at an upset, though I wouldn’t put any money on one occurring.

If anything other than “ROTK” wins it, it will probably be “Mystic River,” which is easily one of the best-written and best-acted films in recent years. Eastwood’s tragedy has plenty of Oscar buzz and would be well-deserving of the Best Picture nod. Equally deserving are “Lost in Translation,” “Whale Rider” and “All the Real Girls.”

The omission of Miramax’s “Cold Mountain”—a solid but unspectacular Civil War epic—was a pleasant surprise. Perhaps if Harvey Weinstein and Co. had spent their marketing bucks pushing “City of God” instead of “Cold Mountain,” it would have gotten the nomination instead of the surprise nominee, “Seabiscuit.” Or maybe that’s just wishful thinking on my part.

Either way, this year’s field of Best Picture nominees proves just how great this year was for the movies. Tons of movies were just as deserving—or more so—than the five final choices, but there’s no cause for me to complain.

This year’s nomination field overall was the most impressive and surprising I’ve ever seen. Maybe the Academy has finally pulled its head out of its ass.